Factors Associated With the Probability of Leaving Bolsa Família Program

Conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) are increasingly common in Latin American countries and have become the main strategy for combating poverty and social inequality. Among many, noteworthy programs include Progresa-Oportunidades, later renamed Prospera, in Mexico in 1997; Programa Familias en Acción in Colombia; Chile Solidario in Chile in 2002; and Bolsa Família Program in Brazil in 2003. The central feature of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) was that the receipt of monetary benefits by families was tied to the fulfillment of certain conditions, or conditionalities, involving healthcare and education for children and adolescents. The purpose of this design was, in the short term, to combat the negative effects of poverty on family well-being through the transfer of monetary resources, and in the long term, through the requirement of conditionalities, to break the poverty trap caused, in large part, by intergenerational transmission of income and education. The literature on conditional cash transfers has largely focused on entry conditions, paying less attention to exit conditions. This study aims to explore the trajectory of participant families in the Bolsa Família Program, using information obtained from the cohort of individuals born in the city of Pelotas in 2004. The research focuses on the socioeconomic characteristics of families at the time of their child’s birth in 2004 and the follow-up conducted in 2015. Survival analysis models are used to analyze the probability of exiting the program. The results reported by the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier method, indicate that a BRL 1.00 (US$ 0.30) increase in income reduces, on average, the likelihood of successful departure from the BFP beneficiary family by 1%. Conversely, exercises conducted by family groups indicate that for families receiving benefits above the average, BRL 141.00 (US$ 42.32), the mother’s age and her employment status positively influence the chances of leaving the program. Overall, the results demonstrate that the values of the benefits received are subject to decreasing returns. For families receiving benefits below the average, a one-unit increase in the amount received reduces the probability of exiting the program by an average of 1%. Regarding successful exits, it was observed that having a white father increases the chances by 40%, and if the father is employed, it increases the likelihood of successfully exiting the program by 48%. These results indicate that the successful exit of families from the program is primarily associated with parental characteristics.