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Turkiye Ekonomisinde Butce Aciginin Surdurulebiliriliginin Analizi


  • Ozlem Goktas

    () (Istanbul University Faculty of Economics Department of Econometrics)


Economic sustainability is consequent to the sustainability of budget policies. By analyzing sustainability of budget policies, it is possible to ascertain if any change in fiscal and monetary policy is necessary or not. In this study, budget deficit sustainability was researched for the period of 1987:1–2007:3 under Inter-temporal Borrowing Constraint (IBC) approach. It is presumed that, crisis occurred and measures taken within the mentioned period caused structural change. Therefore, firstly by using Bai-Perron multiple break tests, a break was determined in the period 2003:2. Sustainability of budget deficit was analyzed for the whole period and two sub-periods respectively. Ng-Perron test for unit roots and Stock-Watson and Shin DOLS tests of cointegration were used in this analysis. Consequently, the results support the weak sustainability for the whole period and also for sub-periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozlem Goktas, 2008. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Butce Aciginin Surdurulebiliriliginin Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 8(1), pages 45-64, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ist:ancoec:v:8:y:2008:i:1:p:45-64

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    Sustainability; Budget Deficit; Bai-Perron Multiple Break Test; Ng-Perron Unit Roots Tests; Stock-Watson DOLS Cointegration Test; Shin’s Cointegration Test;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


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