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Acýk Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Doneminde Parasal Aktarim Mekanizmasinin Doviz Kuru Kanali: Turkiye Uzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

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  • Sevda YAPRAKLI

    () (Ataturk University)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate econometrically with the time series analysis whether it is effectively operating of exchange rate channel of monetary transmission in Turkey. In the study, covering the period of 2006:5-2011:5 that the explicit inflation targeting (IT) is implemented, short time interest rate, real effective exchange rate index, consumer price index (CPI) and real industrial production index variables are used. The results of error correction-augmented Granger causality analysis show that there is bi-directional causality between exchange rate with interest rate and inflation. According to the results of error correction model, exchange rate is negatively affected by short time interest rate while negatively effecting inflation. As a result, all analyses made in the study reflect that the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission in Turkey is effective on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sevda YAPRAKLI, 2011. "Acýk Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Doneminde Parasal Aktarim Mekanizmasinin Doviz Kuru Kanali: Turkiye Uzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 15(1), pages 15-37, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ist:ancoec:v:15:y:2011:i:1:p:15-37
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    File URL: http://eidergisi.istanbul.edu.tr/sayi15/iueis15m2.pdf
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    Keywords

    Monetary Transmission Mechanism; Exchange Rate Channel; Time Series Analysis; Turkey’s Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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