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Experiments by “Visionaries”

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  • Joshua S. Gans

    (Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E6, Canada; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138)

Abstract

How do visionaries design experiments when they need to convince skeptical resource providers? This paper develops a model in which entrepreneurs and incumbent firms face fundamentally different challenges in pursuing disruptive technologies. Whereas visionaries may be optimistic about a technology’s prospects, they often require resources controlled by others with more conservative beliefs. We show that these resource constraints lead entrepreneurs to design experiments that maximize persuasive power rather than informational value; choosing high-bar experiments that generate clear positive signals when technologies succeed. In contrast, incumbent firms with internal authority prefer low-bar experiments that clearly identify technological failures.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua S. Gans, 2025. "Experiments by “Visionaries”," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 360-370, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orstsc:v:10:y:2025:i:4:p:360-370
    DOI: 10.1287/stsc.2025.0402
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