IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v42y1996i9p1308-1325.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measurement Errors in Probability Judgments

Author

Listed:
  • Chezy Ofir

    (Hebrew University of Jerusalem, School of Business, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel)

  • Srinivas K. Reddy

    (121 Brooks Hall, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602)

Abstract

This paper investigates the psychometric properties of three measures of subjective uncertainty---a zero-to-hundred subjective probability scale and two seven point rating scales. Individual level analysis applied to data obtained from two separate studies suggests that the scales produce fairly similar results: The inter-response mode correlations were high, and individual plots comparing various methods were quite similar. Covariance structure models based on multitrait-multimethod matrices are utilized to assess the reliability and method variance of the scales. The cumulative evidence suggests that rating scales are consistently just as reliable as the subjective probability scale. The probability scale contained significant method error. In fact, the two rating scales were found to have lower systematic method variance and lower random error variance than the subjective probability scale. The paper concludes with a discussion regarding possible explanations of these results and directions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Chezy Ofir & Srinivas K. Reddy, 1996. "Measurement Errors in Probability Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(9), pages 1308-1325, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:42:y:1996:i:9:p:1308-1325
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.42.9.1308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.42.9.1308
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J. A. A. Andrade & J. P. Gosling, 2011. "Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 183-193.
    2. Ofir, Chezy & Mazursky, David, 1997. "Does a Surprising Outcome Reinforce or Reverse the Hindsight Bias?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 50-57, January.
    3. Lam, K.Y. & Koning, A.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2007. "Confidence intervals for maximal reliability of probability judgments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:42:y:1996:i:9:p:1308-1325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew Walls). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.