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On Risky Investments with Random Timing of Cash Returns and Fixed Planning Horizon

Author

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  • Stylianos Perrakis

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Izzet Sahin

    (University of Ottawa)

Abstract

This paper provides a computational technique for the evaluation of the net present value (NPV) of an investment, in which the cash inflows occur at random time points and which terminates after a fixed time interval. The initial cash outlay is deterministic and the magnitudes of the cash inflows are nonnegative random variables with known distributions. The lengths of the intervals between successive cash inflows are independently distributed and independent of the magnitude of the inflows. The Laplace transform of the distribution of the NPV is computed for both cases of mutual independence and perfect correlation of the inflows. It is argued that these distributions are indispensable in determining the accuracy of the manager's estimates and in evaluating actual versus expected performance of a project.

Suggested Citation

  • Stylianos Perrakis & Izzet Sahin, 1976. "On Risky Investments with Random Timing of Cash Returns and Fixed Planning Horizon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(7), pages 799-809, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:22:y:1976:i:7:p:799-809
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.7.799
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters,in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. N/A, 1962. "Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 19(1), pages 3-3, February.
    3. N/A, 1962. "Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 20(1), pages 3-3, May.
    4. N/A, 1962. "Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 21(1), pages 3-3, August.
    5. J. G. Cragg & Burton G. Malkiel, 1968. "The Consensus And Accuracy Of Some Predictions Of The Growth Of Corporate Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 67-84, March.
    6. N/A, 1962. "Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(1), pages 3-3, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Selçuk Onay & Ayse Öncüler, 2007. "Intertemporal choice under timing risk: An experimental approach," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 99-121, April.

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