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A Two-State Model of Purchase Incidence and Brand Choice


  • Randolph E. Bucklin

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • James M. Lattin

    (Stanford University)


The authors develop and test a probabilistic model of purchase incidence and brand choice for frequently purchased consumer products. The model incorporates two ways of shopping in a category. Shoppers who have planned their purchasing (made a decision before entering the store) do not process in-store information and show no response to point-of-purchase promotions. Consumers who have not planned their purchasing in a category (deciding at the point of purchase) may process in-store information and may be strongly influenced by promotions. The two modes of information processing are called decision states and are labelled , respectively. The two-state model is calibrated on IRI scanner purchase records for saltine crackers. The model yields a significantly better fit than a one-state nested logit model and provides new insights into the relationship between shopping behavior and consumer purchase response.

Suggested Citation

  • Randolph E. Bucklin & James M. Lattin, 1991. "A Two-State Model of Purchase Incidence and Brand Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 24-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:10:y:1991:i:1:p:24-39

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Clements, Kenneth W & Johnson, Lester W, 1983. "The Demand for Beer, Wine, and Spirits: A Systemwide Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 273-304, July.
    2. Barten, A. P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-73.
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