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Disparidades en el Crecimiento Económico entre China y México

Author

Listed:
  • Cuauhtemoc Calderon-Villarreal

    (El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, México)

  • Leticia Hernández-Bielma

    (El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, México)

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es aplicar el modelo de la regla simple de Thirlwall para analizar las causas de las tasas divergentes de crecimiento de equilibrio entre China y México. Se utiliza el método Fully Modified OLS de Peter C. B. Phillips y Bruce E. Hansen. Este enfoque ofrece estimaciones precisas para las relaciones de largo plazo entre el PIB y las exportaciones, abordando la endogeneidad y la autocorrelación. Mediante este estimador, obtuvimos las tasas de crecimiento de equilibrio del PIB y las elasticidades ingreso de la demanda de importaciones. Se recomienda implementar políticas industriales y comerciales en México para impulsar su crecimiento. Una limitante es que no se realizó un análisis más detallado del crecimiento diferenciado, por lo que habría que explorar más adelante la versión ampliada de Ley de Thirlwall. La originalidad de nuestro trabajo consiste en que contribuye a la comprensión de las disparidades de crecimiento económico entre China y México. En conclusión, evidenciamos las distintas capacidades de crecimiento en función de las restricciones de las cuentas corrientes de cada país.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuauhtemoc Calderon-Villarreal & Leticia Hernández-Bielma, 2024. "Disparidades en el Crecimiento Económico entre China y México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 19(3), pages 1-23, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:19:y:2024:i:3:a:9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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