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La Dinámica de la Manufactura, el Caso Mexicano en el Periodo 1995:01-2012:06


  • Jorge Ludlow Wiechers

    () (Universidad Metropolitana Azc, Mexico)


Manufacturing exhibits nonlinear trends in production levels, one being an active state and the other a passive state. We use a Markov model to estimate these two states, which are tied to United States imports of Mexican products. A regression is made in order to estimate whether there is an expansion or contraction in order to show which sectors have a greater propensity to expand or to decrease, there are several cases where the contracting level of output lasts longer than the expansionary alternative. This method of analysis can be applied to any Latin American economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Ludlow Wiechers, 2013. "La Dinámica de la Manufactura, el Caso Mexicano en el Periodo 1995:01-2012:06," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 28(1), pages 65-90, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:28:y:2013:i:1:p:65-90

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    Manufacturing; Markov switching model;

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General


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