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An analysis of two leading indicators of economic growth in Turkey: Monthly manufacturing industry output and CNBC-e consumption indices

Author

Listed:
  • Erhan ASLANOĞLU

    (Marmara Üniversitesi)

  • Sadullah ÇELİK

    (Marmara Üniversitesi)

Abstract

This study aims to test the predictive power of two monthly indicators for economic growth in Turkish economy for the recent period. The indicators to be tested are CNBC-e Consumption Index and Manufacturing Industry Output Index. CNBC-e Consumption Index can be expected to be the early indicator of consumption expenditures in Turkey which is composing more than 70 percent of total expenditures for this country. On the other hand, manufacturing industry is like a core of the total output, making up almost a quarter of total value added in Turkey. Hence, manufacturing output can be expected to be highly correlated with GDP. This paper will test how reliable these two indicators are in their early predictions of the rate of economic growth. Our findings imply that both indexes can significantly predict the economic growth in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhan ASLANOĞLU & Sadullah ÇELİK, 2010. "An analysis of two leading indicators of economic growth in Turkey: Monthly manufacturing industry output and CNBC-e consumption indices," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 25(293), pages 9-31.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:25:y:2010:i:293:p:9-31
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CNBC-e Consumption Index; Manufacturing Industry Production Index; Gross Domestic Product; Cointegration.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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