IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/igg/jsda00/v3y2014i4p17-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dealing with Multiple Models in System Dynamics: Perspectives on the Future of Copper

Author

Listed:
  • Willem L. Auping

    (The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague, Netherlands)

  • Erik Pruyt

    (Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands)

  • Jan H. Kwakkel

    (Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper introduces an approach to compare simulation runs from multiple System Dynamics simulation models. Three dynamic hypotheses regarding the uncertain evolutions of long-term copper availability are introduced and used to illustrate the new approach. They correspond to three different perspectives on the copper system (global top-down, global bottom-up, and regional top-down). Although each of these models allows to generate a wealth of behavioural patterns, the focus in this paper is on the differences in trajectories caused by different models for identical values of shared parameters and identical settings of other assumptions, not on differences in behavioural patterns caused by each of the models. Hence, differences in trajectories between the three models are identified, quantified, and classified based on a quantified measure of difference. For these models, small differences between the trajectories are only found in stable runs, while the alternative perspectives are largely responsible for medium to large differences. Hence, it is concluded that multiple dynamic hypotheses may have to be modelled when dealing with uncertain issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem L. Auping & Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Dealing with Multiple Models in System Dynamics: Perspectives on the Future of Copper," International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), IGI Global, vol. 3(4), pages 17-35, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:igg:jsda00:v:3:y:2014:i:4:p:17-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://services.igi-global.com/resolvedoi/resolve.aspx?doi=10.4018/ijsda.2014100102
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thibeault, Al & Ryder, Michael & Tomomewo, Olusegun & Mann, Michael, 2023. "A review of competitive advantage theory applied to the global rare earth industry transition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igg:jsda00:v:3:y:2014:i:4:p:17-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journal Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.igi-global.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.