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How Did the Elimination of the US Earnings Test above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Labour Supply Expectations?

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  • Pierre-Carl Michaud
  • Arthur van Soest

Abstract

We look at the effect of the 2000 repeal of the earnings test above the normal retirement age (NRA) on the self-reported probabilities of working full-time after ages 65 and 62 of male workers in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Using administrative records on social security benefit entitlements linked to the HRS survey data, we can distinguish groups of respondents according to the predicted effect of the earnings test before its repeal on their marginal wage rate after the NRA. We use panel data models with fixed and random effects to investigate the effect of the repeal. We find that male workers whose predicted marginal wage rate increased because the earnings test was repealed had the largest increase in the subjective probability of working full-time after age 65. We find no significant effects of the repeal on the subjective probability of working full-time past age 62. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Carl Michaud & Arthur van Soest, 2008. "How Did the Elimination of the US Earnings Test above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Labour Supply Expectations?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 197-231, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:29:y:2008:i:2:p:197-231
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Börsch-Supan & Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Michela Coppola & Bettina Lamla, 2015. "Savings In Times Of Demographic Change: Lessons From The German Experience," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 807-829, September.
    2. Delavande, Adeline & Rohwedder, Susann, 2017. "Changes in spending and labor supply in response to a Social Security benefit cut: Evidence from stated choice data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 34-50.
    3. Tengjiao Chen & Yajie Sheng & Yu Xu, 2020. "The Anticipation Effect of the Earnings Test Reform on Younger Cohorts," Public Finance Review, , vol. 48(4), pages 387-424, July.
    4. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Forecasting Labor Force Participation and Economic Resources of the Early Baby Boomers," Working Papers wp175, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    5. Xiaoyan Li & Nicole Maestas, 2008. "Does the Rise in the Full Retirement Age Encourage Disability Benefits Applications? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Working Papers wp198, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

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