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Industry level foresight: Designing foresight methods for Lithuanian energy sector


  • Agné Paliokaité

    () (Public Policy and Management Institute, Vilnius, Lithuania)


This paper has its starting point in the background analysis of the Lithuanian energy sector after closing down the only Lithuanian nuclear power plant in 2010. Based on the hypothesis that one of the main governance failures in this sector leading to weak industry level strategies is the lack of participatory debate and sufficient linkages between the different actors involved in the dynamic of the energy sector in Lithuania, this paper proposes industry level foresight as an instrument of long term planning. Foresight exercises could become an important instrument for reorienting energy sector policy, building new networks and linkages among the different actors, bringing new stakeholders into the strategic debate, exploring future opportunities State investment (including R&D), etc. The primary objective of this paper is therefore the design of a foresight exercise on energy sector with the aim of producing a long term strategy for this sector. The secondary objective is to address a topic on how to select foresight methods at industry level. The argument is that a better understanding of the fundamental attributes of foresight methods and their linkages to the core phases of a foresight process can provide useful insights as to how the selection of methods is carried out. The method applied in this paper is dual: firstly, the synthesis of the academic literature on the selection of foresight methods is carried out; secondly, the comparative case study analysis of three foresight cases in the Baltic Sea Region (Poland, Finland and Russia) is applied. Case study analysis allows to explore the usage of foresight methods at industry level in the Baltic Sea Region and to understand if there are any similarities in the approach, also to explore success factors and weaknesses. The analysis in this paper is comprised of four main parts. The first part provides a background analysis on the energy sector in Lithuania and justification for the foresight exercise. Second part describes the underlying frameworks and definitions in the field of foresight research. The third part develops a comparative analysis of case studies of industry level foresight. The third part provides recommendations for energy sector foresight methodology in Lithuania. The paper combines concepts and frameworks from literature (such as the Foresight Process and the Foresight Diamond) with comparative practical case study analysis. The results can be utilised by lecturers and students to describe and understand better the use of foresight methods at industry level, and by practitioners of foresight to better inform decisions during the design of more coherent methodological frameworks; as well as by the energy sector stakeholders in Lithuania and other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Agné Paliokaité, 2010. "Industry level foresight: Designing foresight methods for Lithuanian energy sector," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 6(6), pages 9-51, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ieu:journl:v:6:y:2010:i:6:p:9-51

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bettina-Johanna Krings, 2006. "The sociological perspective on the knowledge-based society: assumptions, facts and visions," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 2(2), pages 9-19, November.
    2. Krings, Bettina, 2007. "Wandel der Arbeit: Die Krise der Arbeitsgesellschaft
      [Change on Work: the crisis of the labour economy]
      ," MPRA Paper 7130, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007.
    3. António Brandão Moniz, 2008. "Assessing scenarios on the future of work," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 4(4), pages 91-106, November.
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    More about this item


    Foresight exercise; Foresight methods; Participatory governance; Lithuania; energy sector;

    JEL classification:

    • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting


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