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Induced Preferences, Nonadditive Beliefs, and Multiple Priors


  • Kelsey, David
  • Milne, Frank


We study a decision maker who follows the Savage axioms. We show that if he or she is able to take unobservable actions that influence the probabilities of outcomes, then it can appear to an outsider as if his or her subjective probabilities are nonadditive. Implications for multiperiod decision are explored. We extend the model to include a second individual who is also able to take a hidden action. We show that this may induce uncertainty-averse preferences over some class of acts, even if the second individual acts to help the decision maker with high probability. Copyright 1999 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelsey, David & Milne, Frank, 1999. "Induced Preferences, Nonadditive Beliefs, and Multiple Priors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 455-477, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:40:y:1999:i:2:p:455-77

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dubin, Robin A, 1988. "Estimation of Regression Coefficients in the Presence of Spatially Autocorrelated Error Terms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 466-474, August.
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    3. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502.
    4. Heijmans, Risto D. H. & Magnus, Jan R., 1986. "Consistent maximum-likelihood estimation with dependent observations : The general (non-normal) case and the normal case," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 253-285, July.
    5. Potscher, Benedikt M. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 1986. "A class of partially adaptive one-step m-estimators for the non-linear regression model with dependent observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 219-251, July.
    6. Benedikt M. Pötscher & Ingmar R. Prucha, 1999. "Basic Elements of Asymptotic Theory," Electronic Working Papers 99-001, University of Maryland, Department of Economics.
    7. Anselin, Luc, 1990. "Some robust approaches to testing and estimation in spatial econometrics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 141-163, September.
    8. Case, Anne C, 1991. "Spatial Patterns in Household Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 953-965, July.
    9. Potscher, Benedikt M & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1989. "A Uniform Law of Large Numbers for Dependent and Heterogeneous Data Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 675-683, May.
    10. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Spanjers, Willy, 2008. "Central banks and ambiguity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 85-102.
    2. Frank Milne & Edwin Neave, 2003. "A General Equilibrium Financial Asset Economy with Transaction Costs and Trading Constraints," Working Papers 1082, Queen's University, Department of Economics.

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