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Dutch Books Arguments and Learning in a Nonexpected Utility Framework

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  • Kelsey, David

Abstract

If an individual follows maximin expected utility theory, then a smart outsider cannot, in general, make a bet with him/her that is certain to win in a single time period. However, the author shows that, when there are many time periods, this is possible in his model unless the decisionmaker uses strategic behavior. There are some exceptions, in particular for small deviations from expected utility profits may be less than the transactions costs. Copyright 1995 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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  • Kelsey, David, 1995. "Dutch Books Arguments and Learning in a Nonexpected Utility Framework," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 187-206, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:36:y:1995:i:1:p:187-206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaskold Gabszewicz, Jean & Vial, Jean-Philippe, 1972. "Oligopoly "A la cournot" in a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, June.
    2. Horstmann, Ignatius J & Markusen, James R, 1987. "Strategic Investments and the Development of Multinationals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 109-121, February.
    3. Roberts, John & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1977. "On the Foundations of the Theory of Monopolistic Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 101-113, January.
    4. Gasiorek, Michael & Smith, Alasdair & Venables, Anthony J, 1992. "`1992': Trade and Welfare; A General Equilibrium Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Brander, James A & Spencer, Barbara J, 1985. "Tacit Collusion, Free Entry, and Welfare," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 277-294, March.
    6. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Pro-competitive effects of trade reform : Results from a CGE model of Cameroon," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1157-1184, July.
    7. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 1989. "U.S.-Canada Bilateral Tariff Elimination: The Role of Product Differentiation and Market Structure," NBER Chapters,in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 217-254 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward SchleeE, 1997. "The sure thing principle and the value of information," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 21-36, January.
    2. J L Ford, David Kelsey and W Pang, 2005. "Ambiguity in Financial Markets: Herding and Contrarian Behaviour," Discussion Papers 05-11, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    3. Cubitt, Robin P. & Sugden, Robert, 2001. "On Money Pumps," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 121-160, October.

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