Bootstrapping the Probability Distribution of Peak Electricity Demand
Demand For effective capacity planning, an electric utility requires an estimate of the probability distribution of future maximum demand, rather than simply a point prediction of expected peak. This paper proposes a method of obtaining this using the bootstrapping technique of B. Efron_(1979) and this is applied to the peak demand of an actual utility, Ontario Hydro. While the technique is constructed from the standard procedure of forecasting a future variable using regression coefficients and known values for the right-hand side variables, it is modified to allow for uncertainty in these independent variable forecasts as well. Copyright 1987 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.
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Volume (Year): 28 (1987)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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