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El modelo de expectativas adaptativas como mejor método para estimar la variable precio del grano en el modelo de equilibrio parcial para girasol

  • Sonia Calvo


    (Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba)

  • Alfredo Visintini


    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba)

  • Walter Robledo


    (Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba)

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    El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar el indicador apropiado para la variable precio del grano de girasol, ecuación que es parte del modelo de equilibrio parcial para girasol. Para elegir la variable proxy se estimaron dos modelos: el de expectativas adaptativas de Koyck y el de ajuste parcial o de ajuste de existencias y se calculó el precio promedio del grano considerando los mercados de Buenos Aires, Rosario y Bahía Blanca. Luego de aplicar los diferentes modelos para los precios "esperados" se estimó el modelo de equilibrio parcial a partir de "mínimos cuadrados en dos (MC2E) y en tres etapas (MC3E)". Mediante el test de Hausman (Judge et al, 1988) se estableció el método de estimación apropiado. Entre los resultados se destaca que los mejores indicadores fueron el "precio promedio" y el "precio esperado" calculado por el método de expectativas adaptativas. Así, se deduce que el precio que el productor "espera" es una ponderación de lo ocurrido en los últimos ocho meses (precio en el momento de la siembra y el que recibió en la cosecha anterior). Contrariamente, no se encontró en el método de "ajuste parcial" un buen estimador de precio. The objective of this work is to identify the appropriate indicator for the variable price of the grain of sunflower, equation which is part of the partial balance model for sunflower. Two models have been considered to select the proxy variable: the Koyck adjustable expectations and the partial adjustment or existence adjustment. Then the average price of the grain was estimated taking into account the markets of Buenos Aires, Rosario and Bahía Blanca. After applying the different models for the "expected" prices, the partial balance model was estimated from the "minimum squares in two stages (MC2E) and minimum squares in three stages (MC3E). The appropriate estimation method has been established through the Hausman Test (Judge et. Al, 1988). As a result we can point out that the best indicators were "the average price" and the "expected price" calculated by the adjustable expectation method. Thus we can establish that the price expected by the producer is an optimistic calculation of what has happened in the last eight months (price at the seeding moment and price received in the previous harvest). On the contrary, it hasn't been found a good calculator of the price in the "partial adjustment".

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    Article provided by Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas in its journal Revista de Economía y Estadística.

    Volume (Year): XLIII (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 (July)
    Pages: 87-107

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    Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:43:y:2005:i:2:p:87-107
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