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Export dependence and the economic crisis in the West Balkans

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  • Milena Jovicic

Abstract

The global economic crisis showed effects in the West Balkans in the second half of 2008, multiplying the already existing economic problems. To investigate the relationship between the domestic economic activities and the economic dependence of these countries on foreign economic relations, we observe the main economic indicators assessing their trend breakpoints. Then, by use of vector autoregression (VAR) modelling, we test causality in chain of events between domestic industrial production and exports. The tested hypotheses are the following: (1) the more closely a country is connected in trade with other (more developed) countries, the sooner it experiences the crises and (2) the harder are the effects. The results of our econometric analysis give evidence in favour of the first assumption, while for the intensity of the crisis the opposite seems to be true: countries less open to foreign trade seem to demonstrate a larger production decrease.

Suggested Citation

  • Milena Jovicic, 2010. "Export dependence and the economic crisis in the West Balkans," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 462-477.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijsuse:v:2:y:2010:i:4:p:462-477
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    Cited by:

    1. Predrag Bjelić & Danijela Jaćimović & Ivan Tašić, 2013. "Effects Of The World Economic Crisis On Exports In The Ceec: Focus On The Western Balkans," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(196), pages 71-98, January –.
    2. Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2010. "Driving Forces Of Economic Growth In The Second Decade Of Transition," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(185), pages 7-32, April - J.

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