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Hubungan Kausal Dinamis Antara Variabel-Variabel Moneter Utama Dan Output: Kasus Indonesia Di Bawah Sistem Nilai Tukar Mengambang Dan Mengambang Terkendali

Author

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  • Latif Kharie

Abstract

The objective of the study is to analyze the dynamic causal relationship pattern and the characteristic among the primary monetary variables and output under a different exchange rate systems, i.e the floating and managed floating exchange rate system. The model formulated on this study is based on Taylor rule, state contingent rule, and some theories such as monetary transmission mechanism, exchange rate determination, and Keynes’s demand for money and its augmented models. The type of the study is explanatory research. Variables analyzed consists of real interest rates of Sertifikat Bank Indonesia, real money supply, real exchange rates of rupiah to American dollar, prices and real output. The data used was monthly time series. Sources of data are Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik and International Monetary Fund reports, and analyzed for two different periods of observation. The vector error correction model is used as a quantitative model, focuses on the impulse response function analysis. The results of impulse response function indicate that: (i) the response of monetary policy to changes of real output and price under the floating exchange rate system is positive, and to changes of real exchange rate and price under the managed floating exchange system is also positive; (ii) the response of price to changes of real interest rate, real money supply, real exchange rate and real output under the floating exchange rate system are negative, negative, positive and negative respectively, whereas under the managed floating exchange rates system are negative, positive, negative and positive respectively; and (iii) the response of real output to change of real interest rate under the floating exchange rates system is positive but it is negative under the managed floating exchange rates system.

Suggested Citation

  • Latif Kharie, 2006. "Hubungan Kausal Dinamis Antara Variabel-Variabel Moneter Utama Dan Output: Kasus Indonesia Di Bawah Sistem Nilai Tukar Mengambang Dan Mengambang Terkendali," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 9(1), pages 75-112, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:9:y:2006:i:1c:p:75-112
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v9i1.152
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Causal Relation; Primary Monetary Variables; Output; Floating Rates System; Managed Floating Exchange Rates System;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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