Forecasts for Public Welfare Level at Rise in Prices

The research covers issues of forecasting the effects of a rapid increase in prices on the welfare of the citizens of Ukraine. For modeling the general equilibrium economic & mathematical model has been applied which is a one-country model. The consequences of a possible rise in prices for the welfare of citizens of different socio-demographic groups (in terms of income, place of residence, etc.) have been examined. Social groups which will be most affected by the rise in prices and need help from the state have been defined. The proposals have been grounded as to the application of social assistance programs and subsidies, increase of their efficiency and number of their addresses in particular. The need for developing comprehensive scientifically grounded arrangements has been pointed which should take into account the profile, specifics and peculiarities of income formation at price increase. The basis for such arrangements should be a new, more efficient Poverty Eliminating Strategy and its implementation mechanisms developed on the approved Concept of Social Policy of Ukraine. In reforming the social security system special attention should be paid to the utter poverty households. It has been proposed to introduce a monitoring system that will monitor the implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy and progress in improving the population welfare.