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Proyecciones dinámicas de poblaciones femeninas por grupos etáreos

Author

Listed:
  • Evelyn Álvarez Sierra

    (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

  • Mayra Alfaro Medinaceli

    (Universidad Mayor de San Simón)

Abstract

En el presente trabajo se propone un modelo matemático dinámico para estimar el comportamiento de poblaciones en el tiempo tomando en cuenta la estructura de edades. Se discretiza la ecuación diferencial en derivadas parciales que se obtiene como modelo, utilizando el Método Numérico de Líneas. Para su desarrollo computacional, se utilizó el código DASSL y datos de los censos de Bolivia de 1992 y 2001, se comparó los resultados obtenidos numéricamente con los datos reales. Con el modelo propuesto, se realizaron proyecciones del comportamiento de la población femenina; se observó una tendencia al crecimiento en general y, en particular, la estabilidad en la cantidad de individuos con edades entre 70 y 75 años.

Suggested Citation

  • Evelyn Álvarez Sierra & Mayra Alfaro Medinaceli, 2005. "Proyecciones dinámicas de poblaciones femeninas por grupos etáreos," Investigación & Desarrollo, Universidad Privada Boliviana, vol. 1(5), pages 55-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:iad:wpaper:0405
    DOI: 10.23881/idupbo.005.1-4e
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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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