Eine regionale Beschäftigungsprognose : Ergebnisse für Arbeitsmarktregionen auf dem Gebiet der alten Bundesländer (A forecast of regional employment : results for labour market regions in the old federal states)

"The present draft of the Employment Promotion Reform Act plans for the decentralisation of decision-making bodies at the level of regional and local employment offices. It is not for this reason alone that there is a further increased need for regionalised information in deciding on the allocation of funds in the framework of active labour market policy. An important element of the basis for decision-making is the forecast of developments at a local or district level. The article describes the results, the procedure, and problems of the regional employment prognosis which was drawn up for the labour market regions of the old federal states (i.e. West Germany before reunification). The prognosis is part of the IAB project 'Regional Labour Market Information System', REGARIS, which consists of different further information and analysis modules. The approach of the shift-share method served as the basis for the procedure. Using the official employment fiqures (30.06) for 328 distrists of western Germany, it was carried out dynamically from 1987 to 1995 on a yearly basis with a differentiation according to 11 economic sectors. In the subsequent stages of the forecast, the results of the analysis were supplemented with scenarios regarding the future sectoral growth. After extensive plausibility controls - which resulted in different special solutions - the district values were combined into their particular labour market regions. This resulted in 166 time series each for an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario. The shift-share analysis is frequently judged very differently. It is necessary to make a distinction between its quality as an method of analysis on the one hand and as a method of forecasting on the other hand. Whereas, for various reasons, it clearly retains its status analytically within the regional economy, the prognostic function is considered more problematic because of the well-known, clear weaknesses, which were seen repeatedly here, too. Within the context, the present question and the test character, however, its use was clearly justified. In future, further alternative methodical approaches will be brought into play. The uncertainties regarding the future, which can not be ruled out in any forecast methods, still remain. In particular as a result of the disaggregated regional units, a regional forecast will require a plausibility control in individual cases due to potential, unforeseeable struktural breakdowns." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))