IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hyp/journl/v3y2015i2p32-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Combined Forecasts of Inflation Rate in Romania Using AFTER Algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to construct some combined predictions for the inflation rate in Romania, by using only the individual forecasts of two experts. The predictions provided during 2004-2014 were used in constructing the new forecasts. Several schemes of combination were employed: equally weighted scheme, a scheme with weights that weights depend on the inverse of averages square forecast errors and the Aggregated Forecast Through Exponential Re-weighting (AFTER) algorithm. The combined predictions based on these schemes improved the degree of accuracy of the forecasts made by the second expert during 2010-2013, but only an empirical combination based on the weights from 2009 improved also the first expert predictions for inflation rate in Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "Combined Forecasts of Inflation Rate in Romania Using AFTER Algorithm," Hyperion Economic Journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest, Romania, vol. 3(2), pages 32-37, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:hyp:journl:v:3:y:2015:i:2:p:32-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hej.hyperion.ro/articles/2(3)_2015/HEJ%20nr2(3)_2015_A4Simionescu.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; Aggregated Forecast Through Exponential Re-weighting; inflation rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hyp:journl:v:3:y:2015:i:2:p:32-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iulian Panait (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fehypro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.