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Combined Forecasts of Inflation Rate in Romania Using AFTER Algorithm

Author

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  • Mihaela Simionescu

    () (Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to construct some combined predictions for the inflation rate in Romania, by using only the individual forecasts of two experts. The predictions provided during 2004-2014 were used in constructing the new forecasts. Several schemes of combination were employed: equally weighted scheme, a scheme with weights that weights depend on the inverse of averages square forecast errors and the Aggregated Forecast Through Exponential Re-weighting (AFTER) algorithm. The combined predictions based on these schemes improved the degree of accuracy of the forecasts made by the second expert during 2010-2013, but only an empirical combination based on the weights from 2009 improved also the first expert predictions for inflation rate in Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "Combined Forecasts of Inflation Rate in Romania Using AFTER Algorithm," Hyperion Economic Journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest, Romania, vol. 3(2), pages 32-37, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:hyp:journl:v:3:y:2015:i:2:p:32-37
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; Aggregated Forecast Through Exponential Re-weighting; inflation rate;

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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