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Coste agregado e individual esperado de la Ley de Dependencia en España a partir de los modelos de simulación de Monte Carlo y Multi-Estado de Discapacidad

Author

Listed:
  • Raúl del Pozo

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Francisco Escribano Sotos

    (Universidad Castilla-La Mancha)

Abstract

El presente trabajo, partiendo de distribuciones reales de prestaciones de dependencia según grado y Comunidad Autónoma (CA), estima el coste global y promedio individual de dependencia según grado baremado y comunidad de residencia, así como el coste individual actual en sentido actuarial según edad, sexo, grado de dependencia y comunidad de residencia. Se utiliza el modelo de simulación de Monte Carlo para la asignación de prestaciones de dependencia y distribución de individuos por comunidades, a partir de sus distribuciones multinomiales de probabilidad, y el modelo Multi-Estado de Discapacidad para el cálculo del coste actual en sentido actuarial. El montante global estimado de recursos a movilizar a nivel nacional en 2011 para dependencia asciende a 6.417,35 millones de euros, un 0,60% del PIB. Según grado, el coste promedio anual de dependencia asciende a 7.275,84 € anuales para el grado II (dependencia severa) y a 10.541,76 € anuales para el grado III (gran dependencia), con importantes diferencias entre CC.AA.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl del Pozo & Francisco Escribano Sotos, 2013. "Coste agregado e individual esperado de la Ley de Dependencia en España a partir de los modelos de simulación de Monte Carlo y Multi-Estado de Discapacidad," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 204(1), pages 85-110, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2013:v:204:i:1:p:85-110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick Hennessy, 1995. "Social Protection for Dependent Elderly People: Perspectives from a Review of OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Bermejo & Raúl del Pozo & Pablo Moya, 2021. "Main Factors Determining the Economic Production Sustained by Public Long-Term Care Spending in Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Raúl Pozo-Rubio & Román Mínguez-Salido & Isabel Pardo-García & Francisco Escribano-Sotos, 2019. "Catastrophic long-term care expenditure: associated socio-demographic and economic factors," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(5), pages 691-701, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dependencia; costes; gasto público; simulación Monte Carlo; actuarial.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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