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Coste agregado e individual esperado de la Ley de Dependencia en España a partir de los modelos de simulación de Monte Carlo y Multi-Estado de Discapacidad


  • Raúl del Pozo

    () (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Francisco Escribano Sotos

    () (Universidad Castilla-La Mancha)


El presente trabajo, partiendo de distribuciones reales de prestaciones de dependencia según grado y Comunidad Autónoma (CA), estima el coste global y promedio individual de dependencia según grado baremado y comunidad de residencia, así como el coste individual actual en sentido actuarial según edad, sexo, grado de dependencia y comunidad de residencia. Se utiliza el modelo de simulación de Monte Carlo para la asignación de prestaciones de dependencia y distribución de individuos por comunidades, a partir de sus distribuciones multinomiales de probabilidad, y el modelo Multi-Estado de Discapacidad para el cálculo del coste actual en sentido actuarial. El montante global estimado de recursos a movilizar a nivel nacional en 2011 para dependencia asciende a 6.417,35 millones de euros, un 0,60% del PIB. Según grado, el coste promedio anual de dependencia asciende a 7.275,84 € anuales para el grado II (dependencia severa) y a 10.541,76 € anuales para el grado III (gran dependencia), con importantes diferencias entre CC.AA.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl del Pozo & Francisco Escribano Sotos, 2013. "Coste agregado e individual esperado de la Ley de Dependencia en España a partir de los modelos de simulación de Monte Carlo y Multi-Estado de Discapacidad," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 204(1), pages 85-110, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2013:v:204:i:1:p:85-110

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Patrick Hennessy, 1995. "Social Protection for Dependent Elderly People: Perspectives from a Review of OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item


    dependencia; costes; gasto público; simulación Monte Carlo; actuarial.;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination


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