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Coste agregado e individual esperado de la Ley de Dependencia en España a partir de los modelos de simulación de Monte Carlo y Multi-Estado de Discapacidad

  • Raúl del Pozo

    ()

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Francisco Escribano Sotos

    ()

    (Universidad Castilla-La Mancha)

El presente trabajo, partiendo de distribuciones reales de prestaciones de dependencia según grado y Comunidad Autónoma (CA), estima el coste global y promedio individual de dependencia según grado baremado y comunidad de residencia, así como el coste individual actual en sentido actuarial según edad, sexo, grado de dependencia y comunidad de residencia. Se utiliza el modelo de simulación de Monte Carlo para la asignación de prestaciones de dependencia y distribución de individuos por comunidades, a partir de sus distribuciones multinomiales de probabilidad, y el modelo Multi-Estado de Discapacidad para el cálculo del coste actual en sentido actuarial. El montante global estimado de recursos a movilizar a nivel nacional en 2011 para dependencia asciende a 6.417,35 millones de euros, un 0,60% del PIB. Según grado, el coste promedio anual de dependencia asciende a 7.275,84 € anuales para el grado II (dependencia severa) y a 10.541,76 € anuales para el grado III (gran dependencia), con importantes diferencias entre CC.AA.

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Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Review of Public Economics.

Volume (Year): 204 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 85-110

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2013:v:204:i:1:p:85-110
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  1. Patrick Hennessy, 1995. "Social Protection for Dependent Elderly People: Perspectives from a Review of OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
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