在宅勤務の生産性ダイナミクス, Productivity Dynamics of Working from Home

本稿は，雇用者のパネルデータ（2020～2022 年）に基づき，日本におけるコロナ危機以降の在宅勤務のダイナミクスを分析する．分析結果によれば，第一に，在宅勤務実施者の割合は減少傾向が続いているが，2022 年末時点でも新型コロナ以前に比べてずっと高い水準にある．第二に，平均的な在宅勤務実施頻度は週2～3 日という状況が続いており，ハイブリッド型の在宅勤務が支配的である．第三に，在宅勤務の主観的生産性は改善が続いているが，2022 年末時点でも平均的には職場に比べて約20％低い．第四に，在宅勤務を継続している雇用者の自宅での生産性は80％台半ばで頭打ちとなっており，最近の在宅勤務の生産性上昇は，自宅での生産性が低い雇用者の職場回帰というセレクション効果のみから生じている．第五に，新型コロナ終息後も高頻度での在宅勤務を希望する雇用者は増加傾向が続いている．以上の結果は，在宅勤務において生産性に基づく自然な選択が働いていること，在宅勤務者にとってこの働き方のアメニティ価値が高まっていることを示している．, Based on a panel survey of employees from 2020 to 2022, this study analyzes the dynamics of working from home in Japan since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results are summarized as follows: First, the percentage of those who engage in working from home is still much higher at the end of 2022 than before the pandemic, but it continues to decline. Second, the mean frequency of working from home continues to be two to three days per week. Third, subjective productivity at home continues to improve but is still, on average, approximately 20% lower than in the workplace at the end of 2022. Fourth, the productivity at home of those who continue this work style has peaked in the mid-80% range, and the recent increase in average productivity is the result of the selection effect of employees who are less productive at home returning to the workplace. Fifth, the percentage of employees willing to work from home at a high frequency has been steadily increasing, even after the end of the pandemic. These results indicate that natural selection based on productivity is functioning and that the amenity value of this work style is increasing.