賃金・雇用構造変化の実態と若干の分析―製造業・1961年-1993年―, On the Changes in the Wage Structure of Japanese Manufacturing Industries, 1961-1993

米国，カナダや英国などでは，1980年代に賃金不平等化が急速に進んだ．経済学者はその理由として NIEs 国との貿易拡大や技術変化を指摘しているが，これらの環境変化は他ならぬ日本の製造業が経験してきたものである．この論文では，製造業の賃金・雇用構造変化を30年間余りにわたって調べるとともに，環境変化の影響に関していくつかの分析を行う．判明した事実は，（１）近年，急速な高齢化と高年者に対する相対需要の減少にもかかわらず，年齢間格差は縮小していないこと；（２）勤続年数間格差の縮小が進むなかで定着化が進んできたが，最近になって男子若年者が流動化していること；（３）男子では，「大卒」の「高卒」に対する相対供給は1980年代前半まで増加して学歴間格差は縮小したが，その後は相対供給も格差もほぼ一定であること；（４）ホワイトカラー比率が増加する一方で，職種間格差は少しずつ縮小していること；（５）男女間格差の縮小はきわめて緩慢であること；（６）全体的な賃金分布は長期的に平等化していることなでどである．, In the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom wage inequalities widened rapidly in the 1980s. The other developed countries seem to have experienced higher unemployment rates. Western economists indicate that economic globalization and technological changes are possible causes. But these environmental changes are exactly what Japanese manufacturing industries have experienced. They have also experienced rapid aging of their labor forces and high educational upgrading. In this paper, I carefully examine the changes in the wage structure of manufacturing industries for more than thirty years, and analyze the effects of environmental changes on them. The main results are (1) that the age-wage differentials did not shrink in spite of the recent growth of and the reduced relative demand for older workers; (2) that the college graduates/high school graduates differential shrank until the middle 1980s because of the increase in the college graduates relative supply, and that recently both the wage differential and the relative supply have been stable; (3) that the nonproduction/production differential has been shrinking over the three decades while nonproduction workers have been relatively increasing; (4) that the shrinking of the gender differential has been very modest; and (5) that the overall wage dispersion shrank greatly during the 1960s and has been shrinking continually until the present.