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Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Monteiro
  • L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez
  • Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado
  • Andres Muñoz-Jimenez
  • Pedro M. Lara-Santillan

Abstract

We present and compare two short-term statistical forecasting models for hourly average electric power production forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) plants: the analytical PV power forecasting model (APVF) and the multiplayer perceptron PV forecasting model (MPVF). Both models use forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) tools at the location of the PV plant as well as the past recorded values of PV hourly electric power production. The APVF model consists of an original modeling for adjusting irradiation data of clear sky by an irradiation attenuation index, combined with a PV power production attenuation index. The MPVF model consists of an artificial neural network based model (selected among a large set of ANN optimized with genetic algorithms, GAs). The two models use forecasts from the same NWP tool as inputs. The APVF and MPVF models have been applied to a real-life case study of a grid-connected PV plant using the same data. Despite the fact that both models are quite different, they achieve very similar results, with forecast horizons covering all the daylight hours of the following day, which give a good perspective of their applicability for PV electric production sale bids to electricity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Monteiro & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & Andres Muñoz-Jimenez & Pedro M. Lara-Santillan, 2013. "Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-9, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:767284
    DOI: 10.1155/2013/767284
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    Cited by:

    1. Yeji Lee & Doosung Choi & Yongho Jung & Myeongjin Ko, 2022. "Application of Technology to Develop a Framework for Predicting Power Output of a PV System Based on a Spatial Interpolation Technique: A Case Study in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Jayesh Thaker & Robert Höller, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Time Series Forecasting of Solar Energy Based on Irradiance Classification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-26, April.
    3. Yuhao Zhang & Ting Li & Tianyi Ma & Dongsheng Yang & Xiaolong Sun, 2024. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Extreme Learning Machine with Improved Dung Beetle Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-24, February.
    4. Aleksandar Dimovski & Matteo Moncecchi & Davide Falabretti & Marco Merlo, 2020. "PV Forecast for the Optimal Operation of the Medium Voltage Distribution Network: A Real-Life Implementation on a Large Scale Pilot," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-21, October.
    5. Mohamed Mohana & Abdelaziz Salah Saidi & Salem Alelyani & Mohammed J. Alshayeb & Suhail Basha & Ali Eisa Anqi, 2021. "Small-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Power Prediction for Residential Load in Saudi Arabia Using Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    6. Mohammed A. Bou-Rabee & Muhammad Yasin Naz & Imad ED. Albalaa & Shaharin Anwar Sulaiman, 2022. "BiLSTM Network-Based Approach for Solar Irradiance Forecasting in Continental Climate Zones," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Kelachukwu J. Iheanetu, 2022. "Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-31, December.

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