Identifying the Determinants of CO 2 Emission Change in China’s Power Sector

Power sector is significantly important for China to achieve the CO 2 emission reduction targets. In this study, we analyze the features of CO 2 emissions and environment effect in China’s power sector, investigate the driving factors of CO 2 emission change based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, and evaluate the mitigation potential of CO 2 emissions in China’s power sector. Results show that CO 2 emissions in China’s power sector increased rapidly from 492.00 Mt in 1990 to 3049.88 Mt in 2014 while CO 2 emission intensity experienced an unsteady downward trend during the study period. Industrial scale effect is the key contributor to CO 2 emission growth in China’s power sector, and its contribution degree reaches 123.97%. Energy intensity effect contributes most to the decrease in CO 2 emissions, with a contribution degree of −20.01%. Capital productivity effect is another important factor leading to CO 2 emissions increase. The aggregate CO 2 emission reduction would reach 17973.86 million tons (Mt) during 2015–2030 in the ideal emission reduction scenario. Finally, policy recommendations are made for future energy-saving and CO 2 emission reduction in China’s power sector.