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Key Parameters of Russia's Long-Term Economic Development: A Scenario Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Apokin

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (Russia))

  • Dmitry Belousov

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (Russia))

  • Kirill Mikhailenko

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (Russia))

Abstract

Today both on the national and business levels the efforts are being made to tackle two different issues: implementation of anti-crisis measures and forming the ground for a policy aimed at changing technological profile of the Russian economy. Building long-term scenarios of economic development becomes the most challenging task. The paper investigates three possible trajectories of development, based on the standard methods of economic analysis and R&D forecasting as well as unique approaches and models. The authors describe conditions and liable results of the most promising — innovation-based — scenario and characterize factors which make alternative prognoses relevant. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Apokin & Dmitry Belousov & Kirill Mikhailenko, 2010. "Key Parameters of Russia's Long-Term Economic Development: A Scenario Analysis," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 4-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:4:y:2010:i:1:p:4-18
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    File URL: http://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2011/07/26/1214933464/4-18.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foresight; scenarios for Russia's development;

    JEL classification:

    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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