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Disinflation, Naira Stability, and Debt Sustainability: Nigeria's 2026 Macro

Author

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  • Olaniyi Evans

Abstract

Nigeria's macroeconomic position in 2026 reflects a convergence of meaningful reform gains and persistent structural vulnerabilities. Headline inflation moderated from 34.80% in December 2024 to 15.06% by February 2026 on the rebased CPI series, with a slight uptick to 15.38% in March. Gross external reserves reached a thirteen-year high of $50.45 billion. Total public debt stood at N159.28 trillion at end-2025, with a post-rebasing debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 39.4%. Debt-service obligations, however, continue to exceed federally retained revenue. We examine the structural drivers, institutional architecture, and capital allocation implications of Nigeria's current macro position.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaniyi Evans, 2026. "Disinflation, Naira Stability, and Debt Sustainability: Nigeria's 2026 Macro," Hequation Review, Hequation, vol. 1(1), pages 6-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:heq:heqrev:v1y2026i1a2
    DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.32228814
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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