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Stock Returns, the Interest Rate and Inflation in the Italian Stock Market: A Long-Run Perspective


  • Fabio C. Bagliano

    () (University of Turin)

  • Andrea Beltratti

    (University of Turin)


This paper investigates the behaviour of stock prices in Italy over the 1963-1995 period. By means of a time-series analysis of both the long- and the short-run properties of stock prices and other macroeconomic variables, we find strong evidence of a long-run equilibrium negative relation between the inflation rate and a real stock price index. The Dynamic adjustment of stock prices towards the equilibrium relation is also analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio C. Bagliano & Andrea Beltratti, 1997. "Stock Returns, the Interest Rate and Inflation in the Italian Stock Market: A Long-Run Perspective," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 56(3-4), pages 139-167, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v56_n1-2_p139-167

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Allison C Schrager & George A Mackenzie, 2004. "Can the Private Annuity Market Provide Secure Retirement Income?," IMF Working Papers 04/230, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2011. "Measuring intra-generational and inter-generational redistribution in the reformed Italian social security system," Working Papers 11, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    3. Giuseppe Carone & Herwig Immervoll & Dominique Paturot & Aino Salomäki, 2004. "Indicators of Unemployment and Low-Wage Traps: Marginal Effective Tax Rates on Employment Incomes," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
    4. Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka & Strzelecki, Paweł, 2013. "The minimum pension as an instrument of poverty protection in the defined contribution pension system – an example of Poland," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 326-350, July.
    5. Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2008. "CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System," Department of Economics 0595, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    6. Cannon, Edmund & Tonks, Ian, 2003. "UK annuity rates and pension replacement ratios 1957-2002," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24832, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Monika Queisser & Edward R. Whitehouse, 2006. "Neutral or Fair?: Actuarial Concepts and Pension-System Design," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 40, OECD Publishing.
    8. Mazzaferro, Carlo & Morciano, Marcello & Savegnago, Marco, 2012. "Differential mortality and redistribution in the Italian notional defined contribution system," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(04), pages 500-530, October.
    9. repec:mod:cappmo:0035 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Giovanni Guazzarotti & Pietro Tommasino, 2008. "The Annuity Market in an Evolving Pension System: Lessons from Italy," CeRP Working Papers 77, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    11. Baldini Massimo & Mazzaferro Carlo & Morciano Marcello, 2008. "Assessing the implications of long-term care policies in Italy: a microsimulation approach," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 47-72.
    12. Edward R. Whitehouse, 2010. "Decomposing Notional Defined-Contribution Pensions: Experience of OECD Countries' Reforms," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 109, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock market fluctuations and money demand in Italy, 1913-2003," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 576, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item


    stock returns; interest rate; inflation; cointegration; structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)


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