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Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) and Quality of Economic Development (QED) in China: Based on Panel Threshold Regression

Author

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  • Haoyue Wang

    (School of Education, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Shiwu Xia

    (School of Education, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

We examine how Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) shapes the Quality of Economic Development (QED) amid rapid digitalization and the green transition. Using a balanced panel of 30 Chinese provinces (2013–2023), we construct a multidimensional, entropy-weighted QED index and combine two-way fixed effects with an instrumental-variables approach (regional graduate flows) to reduce endogeneity concerns. Mechanisms are traced via sequential-equation mediation with bias-corrected bootstrap inference, and funding nonlinearity is tested with a panel threshold model. We find a positive, robust TVET effect on QED. Two channels, entrepreneurial vitality and industrial structure upgrading, mediate a meaningful share of the impact. Effects are heterogeneous across space, with the strongest in the eastern provinces, moderate in the western provinces, and not statistically significant in the centre. Per-student funding exhibits dual thresholds: returns are negligible below the first cut-off (≈¥16,000) and rise sharply above the second (≈¥17,000), which helps explain regional disparities. Using established methods applied consistently across a long provincial panel, this study quantifies the strength and channels of the TVET–QED relationship and identifies funding levels associated with differential returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Haoyue Wang & Shiwu Xia, 2025. "Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) and Quality of Economic Development (QED) in China: Based on Panel Threshold Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:24:p:11322-:d:1820147
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