The Impact of Drug Price Reduction on Healthcare System Sustainability: A CGE Analysis of China’s Centralized Volume-Based Procurement Policy

China’s healthcare expenditure tripled during 2010–2019, prompting the nationwide implementation of centralized volume-based procurement (CVBP). While effective in reducing drug prices, CVBP introduces sustainability challenges including supply chain vulnerabilities and welfare trade-offs. This study develops a pharmaceutical sector-embedded computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify CVBP’s multidimensional sustainability impacts. Using China’s 2020 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with simulated 10–50% price reductions, key findings reveal that (1) >40% price reductions trigger sectoral output reversal; (2) GDP exhibits an inverted U-shape; (3) household income declines despite corporate/government gains; and (4) industrial contraction impairs innovation capacity and employment stability. Our analysis identifies potential sustainability risks, emphasizing the need for rigorous empirical validation prior to implementing aggressive price reduction policies, and underscores the importance of integrating supply chain considerations into procurement policy design. This approach maximizes resource allocation efficiency while advancing socioeconomic resilience in healthcare systems.