The Simulation of Coupled “Natural–Social” Systems in the Tarim River Basin: Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Soil–Habitat–Carbon Under Multiple Scenarios

Ecosystem services (ESs) are a life-support system for human development that are also a strategic root for realizing global ecological security and sustainable development. In this study, the spatial distribution pattern of land-use and ESs under three scenarios (an ecological protection scenario (EPS), a natural development scenario (NDS), and a cropland protection scenario (CPS)) in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), Northwest China, is predicted for 2035 using the Future Land-Use Simulation (FLUS)–Integrated Valuation of ESs and Trade-Offs (InVEST) model. Land-use data from 2000 to 2023 are utilized as the basic data, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of land-use and multiple ESs under different scenarios are explored. The results show that (1) the land-use structure of the TRB is dominated by barren land (55.12%) and grassland (30.28%), and the dynamic evolution of the land-use pattern from 2000 to 2023 is characterized by the continuous shrinkage of the area of barren land and the expansion of impervious surfaces, cropland, water bodies, and other productive and living land and water. (2) According to the prediction results of the FLUS model, the different scenarios of land-use for 2020–2035 show various change trends. In the EPS, the proportion of ecological land jumps to 35.23%, while production land and living land show a systematic contraction. Under the NDS, water bodies, grassland, and impervious surfaces experience a decreasing trend, whereas cropland, forest land, and barren land increase in area. Under the CPS, the trend of shrinkage for ecological land accelerates, especially the fragmentation of forest patches (shrinking by 24 km 2 ) and the expansion of cropland and barren land. (3) A comparison and an analysis of the ESs in several scenarios for 2035 show an increase in ESs under the EPS compared with those in 2020, along with a marked improvement in the TRB’s future ecological environment under this scenario. By adhering to the guidance of ecological priority through optimization of the national spatial pattern and the integration of ecological elements, the dynamic balance between ecological protection and economic development can be effectively coordinated, providing core support for the sustainable development of the region. (4) Ecosystem services are significantly impacted by changes in grassland in a variety of settings, particularly in the NDS. Contradictory trade-offs between ecological functions are revealed in the CPS, where cropland expansion promotes soil conservation but worsens the degradation of grassland. In the EPS, the synergistic expansion of grassland and water favorably regulates ecosystem services. A major way to increase the capacity of regional ecosystem services and accomplish sustainable development is to optimize the land-use for ecological preservation, with an emphasis on increasing the acreage of grassland, forest, and water while decreasing the area of cropland and barren.