IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i3p1430-d734916.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Tatiana Ermolieva

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Petr Havlik

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Taher Kahil

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Juraj Balkovic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Rastislav Skalsky

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Yuri Ermoliev

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Pavel S. Knopov

    (Institute of Cybernetics, 03187 Kiev, Ukraine)

  • Olena M. Borodina

    (Institute of Economics and Forecasting, 01011 Kiev, Ukraine)

  • Vasyl M. Gorbachuk

    (Institute of Cybernetics, 03187 Kiev, Ukraine)

Abstract

Uncertainty and variability are key challenges for climate change adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed, and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired information. This decision-making approach corresponds to the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) incorporating both anticipative ex ante and adaptive ex post decisions within a single model. This paper develops a two-stage STO model for climate change adaptation through robust land use and irrigation planning under conditions of uncertain water supply. The model identifies the differences between decision-making in the cases of perfect information, full uncertainty, and two-stage STO from the perspective of learning about uncertainty. Two-stage anticipative and adaptive decision-making with safety constraints provides risk-informed decisions characterized by quantile-based Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The ratio between the ex ante and ex post costs and the shape of uncertainty determine the balance between the anticipative and adaptive decisions. Selected numerical results illustrate that the alteration of the ex ante agricultural production costs can affect crop production, management technologies, and natural resource utilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatiana Ermolieva & Petr Havlik & Stefan Frank & Taher Kahil & Juraj Balkovic & Rastislav Skalsky & Yuri Ermoliev & Pavel S. Knopov & Olena M. Borodina & Vasyl M. Gorbachuk, 2022. "A Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1430-:d:734916
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1430/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1430/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuri Ermoliev & Detlof Winterfeldt, 2012. "Systemic Risk and Security Management," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Yuri Ermoliev & Marek Makowski & Kurt Marti (ed.), Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems, edition 127, pages 19-49, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. T. Ermolieva & Y. Ermoliev & M. Jonas & M. Obersteiner & F. Wagner & W. Winiwarter, 2014. "Uncertainty, cost-effectiveness and environmental safety of robust carbon trading: integrated approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 633-646, June.
    2. Tatiana Ermolieva & Petr Havlik & Yuri Ermoliev & Nikolay Khabarov & Michael Obersteiner, 2021. "Robust Management of Systemic Risks and Food-Water-Energy-Environmental Security: Two-Stage Strategic-Adaptive GLOBIOM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1430-:d:734916. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.