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Predictions of War Duration

Author

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  • Glenn McRae

    (Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada)

Abstract

The durations of wars fought between 1480 and 1941 A.D. were found to be well represented by random numbers chosen from a single-event Poisson distribution with a half-life of (1.25 ± 0.1) years. This result complements the work of L.F. Richardson who found that the frequency of outbreaks of wars can be described as a Poisson process. This result suggests that a quick return on investment requires a distillation of the many stressors of the day, each one of which has a small probability of being included in a convincing well-orchestrated simple call-to-arms. The half-life is a measure of how this call wanes with time.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn McRae, 2025. "Predictions of War Duration," Stats, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-9, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jstats:v:8:y:2025:i:4:p:92-:d:1767013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Freeman Dyson, 2004. "A meeting with Enrico Fermi," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6972), pages 297-297, January.
    2. D. Scott Bennett & Allan C. Stam, 2009. "Revisiting Predictions of War Duration," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(3), pages 256-267, July.
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