Return or Stay? The Dilemma of Hope and Despair Among Syrian Refugees Living in Jordan: An Ecological Perspective

The political transition in Syria following the fall of the Al-Assad regime in December 2024 has renewed debates about refugee return. This study examines Syrian refugees’ intentions to return from Jordan and the factors shaping these decisions using a mixed-method design. A stratified random sample of 1070 refugees residing in host areas and camps was surveyed through telephone interviews, complemented by four focus group discussions and two key informant interviews with experts. Although 61% of respondents expressed an intention to return, only 20% indicated concrete or immediate plans, suggesting that return remains largely aspirational rather than imminent. Access to housing and property (55%), economic condition (46%), and safety and security (40%) emerged as central determinants, indicating that structural barriers, rather than regime change alone, shape decision-making. Qualitative findings further reveal that emotional attachment to Syria sustains return aspirations, yet financial hardship, debt in Jordan, and housing destruction in Syria constrain refugees’ capabilities to act. These findings underscore that voluntary, safe, and dignified repatriation depends not only on addressing structural barriers in Syria, but also on maintaining essential protection and support for Syrian refugees in Jordan.