A Targeted Crime Reduction Implementation: An Analysis of Immediate Effects and Long-Term Sustainability

Crime in Seattle, WA (USA), has long been concentrated in a few discrete geographic areas. This study examines the impact of a one-year place-based soft policing intervention to reduce crime and disorder in these two acutely affected areas: The Blade and Little Saigon. Employing Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) to estimate the treatment effect of the intervention on several crimes and calls for service measures, we find mixed results with important implications. One area responded with significant reductions in crime and community-driven calls for service. The second treatment area did not reflect these effects, suggesting that key contextual variations may influence performance of Problem-Oriented Policing treatments. Additionally, treatment effects in the first location were observed to partially diminish over time, indicating a point of diminishing returns. This study suggests that a multi-partner soft policing approach to crime reduction is effective; however, treatment must be tailored to local context, and treatment areas should be expected to adjust, necessitating programed variability to maintain treatment efficacy. A “test-as-you-go” approach is critical to optimal performance. Implications for future place-based interventions are discussed.