The Effect of Prior Criminal Record on Pretrial Failure

Urban bail systems rely heavily on cash bonds to secure the pretrial release of criminal defendants awaiting trial, despite longstanding criticism that this practice disproportionately incarcerates indigent defendants solely because they cannot afford to pay. Many large jurisdictions employ bail bond schedules that assign monetary amounts based primarily on the seriousness of the offense. Using data on 5322 defendants released on bail in 35 large urban counties, this study examines whether bail amount or a defendant’s prior criminal history better predicts pretrial failure, defined as pretrial rearrest and failure to appear. Results show that prior criminal history is a substantially stronger and more consistent predictor of pretrial failure than bail amount. Bail amount also exhibits no meaningful association with rearrest and only a modest relationship with failure to appear. These findings suggest that community safety may be better served by substantially reducing reliance on cash bail and placing greater emphasis on prior criminal history in pretrial release decisions.