Why Are Some Drug Markets More Violent than Others? An Analysis of Violence Using Fuzzy Logic

Drug markets display varying levels of violence across urban contexts, and understanding the drivers behind these differences is essential for designing effective interventions. (1) Background: This study investigates why some cocaine markets are more violent than others, focusing on four cities: Ciudad Juárez, Pereira, Frankfurt, and Madrid. (2) Methods: Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), we examined complex configurations of institutional, social, and market-related factors. Data were collected through 56 semi-structured interviews and secondary sources from 2015 to 2020. (3) Results: The findings reveal that violence arises from specific combinations of factors rather than isolated variables. In Latin American cities, violence is associated with weak institutional control, dense criminal networks, high social vulnerability, and fragmented market structures. In contrast, European cities show lower levels of violence due to stronger institutions, effective law enforcement, and well-regulated markets. (4) Conclusions: Addressing violence in cocaine markets requires context-specific strategies that take into account institutional capacity, market dynamics, and broader social conditions. These findings challenge simplistic views of drug market violence and emphasize the need for tailored interventions to mitigate violence effectively.