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Theoretical Substantiation of Risk Assessment Directions in the Development of Fields with Hard-to-Recover Hydrocarbon Reserves

Author

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  • Tatyana Semenova

    (Department of Industrial Economics, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, 2, 21st Line, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

  • Iaroslav Sokolov

    (Department of Industrial Economics, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, 2, 21st Line, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

Abstract

This article presents a methodology for risk assessment and management in the development of hard-to-recover hydrocarbon reserves. The proposed methodology integrates Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic methods, which allows for the consideration of both quantitative stochastic risks (e.g., fluctuations in oil prices, variability in costs, and production volumes) and qualitative uncertainties (e.g., environmental, social, and technological risks) that are traditionally difficult to formalize. The approach facilitates the incorporation of uncertainties associated with complex field developments and aims to improve managerial decisions through comprehensive risk assessment. The article elaborates on the theoretical aspects of the proposed methodology, including risk identification stages, the formalization of qualitative data using fuzzy logic, and the application of the Monte Carlo method for integrating various risk categories. The results confirm the potential of this methodology as a tool to enhance the resilience and economic efficiency of projects involving the development of hard-to-recover hydrocarbon reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatyana Semenova & Iaroslav Sokolov, 2025. "Theoretical Substantiation of Risk Assessment Directions in the Development of Fields with Hard-to-Recover Hydrocarbon Reserves," Resources, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:14:y:2025:i:4:p:64-:d:1633074
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohamed Mehana & Qinjun Kang & Hari Viswanathan, 2020. "Molecular-Scale Considerations of Enhanced Oil Recovery in Shale," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Tatyana Semenova & Juan Yair Martínez Santoyo, 2024. "Increasing the Sustainability of the Strategic Development of Oil Producing Companies in Mexico," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-37, August.
    3. Cano-Londono, Natalia A. & Médina, Oscar E. & Mozo, Ivan & Céspedes, Santiago & Franco, Camilo A. & Cortés, Farid B., 2024. "Viability of the steam-based extraction of extra-heavy crude oil using nanoparticles: Exergy and life-cycle assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Xiangji Dou & Menxing Qian & Xinli Zhao & An Wang & Zhengdong Lei & Erpeng Guo & Yufei Chen, 2024. "Fluid Flow Behavior in Nanometer-Scale Pores and Its Impact on Shale Oil Recovery Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-22, September.
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