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Multi-Subject Decision-Making Analysis in the Public Opinion of Emergencies: From an Evolutionary Game Perspective

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  • Chen Guo

    (School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
    School of Economics and Management, Zhongyuan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450007, China
    China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Yinghua Song

    (School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
    China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

Abstract

This study employs evolutionary game theory to analyze the tripartite interaction among government regulators, media publishers, and self-media participants in emergency public opinion management. We establish an evolutionary game model incorporating strategic motivations and key influencing factors; then, we validate the model through systematic simulations. Key findings demonstrate the following: ① the system exhibits dual stable equilibria: regulated equilibrium and autonomous equilibrium. ② Sensitivity analysis identifies critical dynamics: ① self-media behavior is primarily driven by penalty avoidance ( g 3 ) and losses ( w 2 ); ② media participation hinges on revenue incentives ( m 2 ) versus regulatory burdens ( k ); ③ government intervention efficacy diminishes on emergencies when resistance ( v 1 + v 3 ) exceeds control benefits. The study reveals that effective governance requires the following: ① adaptive parameter tuning of punishment–reward mechanisms; ② dynamic coordination between information control and market incentives. This framework advances emergency management by quantifying how micro-level interactions shape macro-level opinion evolution, providing actionable insights for balancing stability and information freedom in digital governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen Guo & Yinghua Song, 2025. "Multi-Subject Decision-Making Analysis in the Public Opinion of Emergencies: From an Evolutionary Game Perspective," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-26, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:13:y:2025:i:10:p:1547-:d:1651628
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roşu, Maria-Magdalena & Fiscutean, Andrada & Paun, Mihaela, 2024. "The press and government, influencers of citizens’ political opinions: A quasi-experiment on Brexit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 272-288.
    2. Yan Zhang & Nengcheng Chen & Wenying Du & Shuang Yao & Xiang Zheng, 2020. "A New Geo-Propagation Model of Event Evolution Chain Based on Public Opinion and Epidemic Coupling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Wei Zhang & Yong Chen & Giacomo Fiumara, 2021. "Research on Evolutionary Model and Dynamic Analysis for Internet Public Opinion Spreading," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-11, October.
    4. Zeguo Qiu & Xiuang Yuan & Yuchen Yin & Fabio Tramontana, 2023. "Research on Social Governance of Network Public Opinion: An Evolutionary Game Model," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2023, pages 1-13, April.
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