Spatial Pattern and Driving Mechanisms of Settlements in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China: A Case Study of Eastern Inner Mongolia

Rural settlements in agro-pastoral ecotones reflect the complex interplay between natural constraints and human land use, particularly in ecologically sensitive and climatically transitional regions. This study investigated the agro-pastoral ecotone of eastern Inner Mongolia, a representative region characterized by environmental heterogeneity and competing land use functions. Landscape pattern indices, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were employed to analyze settlement morphology and its environmental determinants. The results reveal a distinct east–west spatial gradient: settlements are larger and more concentrated in low-elevation plains with favorable hydrothermal conditions, whereas those in mountainous and pastoral areas are smaller, sparser, and more fragmented. OLS regression revealed a strong positive correlation between arable land and settlement density ( r > 0.8), whereas elevation and slope were significantly negatively correlated. GWR results further highlight spatial non-stationarity in the influence of key environmental factors. Average annual temperature generally shows a positive influence on settlement density, particularly in the central and eastern agricultural areas. In contrast, forest cover is predominantly negative, especially in the Greater Khingan Mountains. Proximity to water resources consistently enhances settlement density, although the magnitude of this effect varies across regions. Based on spatial characteristics and land use structure, rural settlements were categorized into four types: alpine pastoral, agro-pastoral transitional, river valley agricultural, and forest ecological. This study provides empirical evidence that natural factors (topography, climate, and hydrology) and land use variables (farmland, pasture, and woodland) collectively shape rural settlement patterns in transitional landscapes. The findings offer methodological and practical insights for targeted land management and sustainable rural development in agro-pastoral regions under ecological and socioeconomic pressures.