IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i6p1234-d1674250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Land Cover Change and Future Hydrological Impacts Under Climate Scenarios in the Amazonian Andes: A Case Study of the Utcubamba River Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Abner S. Rivera-Fernandez

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Alexander Cotrina-Sanchez

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Rolando Salas López

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Jhon A. Zabaleta-Santisteban

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Ney Rios

    (Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE), Turrialba 30501, Costa Rica)

  • Angel J. Medina-Medina

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Katerin M. Tuesta-Trauco

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • José A. Sánchez-Vega

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Teodoro B. Silva-Melendez

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Manuel Oliva-Cruz

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Cecibel Portocarrero

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

  • Elgar Barboza

    (Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru)

Abstract

Understanding how land use and climate change jointly affect water availability is essential for sustainable planning in tropical Andean–Amazonian basins. This study focuses on the Utcubamba River Basin in northeastern Peru, a data-scarce and socioecologically strategic watershed where land transformation and climate variability converge. A multi-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) analysis (1990–2024) was conducted, coupled with hydrological modeling using the SWAT model under historical and future climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5), including the spatial overlay of the LULC change concentration with key hydrological indicators. LULC classifications revealed forest loss and the expansion of pasture, agriculture, and shrubland areas, particularly in the upper basin. Hydrological projections showed significant changes in water flow, including reductions in minimum monthly flows by up to 73.9% and increases in peak flows by 14.8% under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. The water balance is expected to shift, with increased percolation and reduced lateral flow, suggesting decreased storage capacity. By identifying critical sub-basins where land degradation and water insecurity converge, the study supports adaptive strategies for land restoration, aquifer recharge planning, and ecosystem conservation. Despite limited hydrological infrastructure, the SWAT model effectively simulated water dynamics, aiding climate resilience and water security efforts in the Amazonian Andes.

Suggested Citation

  • Abner S. Rivera-Fernandez & Alexander Cotrina-Sanchez & Rolando Salas López & Jhon A. Zabaleta-Santisteban & Ney Rios & Angel J. Medina-Medina & Katerin M. Tuesta-Trauco & José A. Sánchez-Vega & Teodo, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Land Cover Change and Future Hydrological Impacts Under Climate Scenarios in the Amazonian Andes: A Case Study of the Utcubamba River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:6:p:1234-:d:1674250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1234/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1234/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Mera-Parra & Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Priscilla Massa-Sánchez & Pablo Ochoa-Cueva, 2021. "Establishment of the Baseline for the IWRM in the Ecuadorian Andean Basins: Land Use Change, Water Recharge, Meteorological Forecast and Hydrological Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Hossein Tabari & Meron Teferi Taye & Charles Onyutha & Patrick Willems, 2017. "Decadal Analysis of River Flow Extremes Using Quantile-Based Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3371-3387, September.
    3. Paulo Ricardo Rufino & Björn Gücker & Monireh Faramarzi & Iola Gonçalves Boëchat & Francielle da Silva Cardozo & Paula Resende Santos & Gustavo Domingos Zanin & Guilherme Mataveli & Gabriel Pereira, 2022. "Evaluation of the SWAT Model for the Simulation of Flow and Water Balance Based on Orbital Data in a Poorly Monitored Basin in the Brazilian Amazon," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Manish Kumar Goyal & Venkatesh K. Panchariya & Ashutosh Sharma & Vishal Singh, 2018. "Comparative Assessment of SWAT Model Performance in two Distinct Catchments under Various DEM Scenarios of Varying Resolution, Sources and Resampling Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 805-825, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Mera-Parra & Priscilla Massa-Sánchez & Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Pablo Ochoa-Cueva, 2022. "Territorial Prospective to Sustainability: Strategies for Future Successful of Water Resource Management on Andean Basins," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Shizhou Ma & Karen F. Beazley & Patrick Nussey & Christopher S. Greene, 2021. "Assessing Optimal Digital Elevation Model Selection for Active River Area Delineation Across Broad Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4825-4840, November.
    3. Gokmen Ceribasi & Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu & Andrzej Wałęga & Dariusz Młyński, 2022. "Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Energy Produced by Hydroelectric Power Plants (HEPPs) by Trend Analysis Method: A Case Study for Dogancay I–II HEPPs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Harikrishna Sukumaran & Sanat Nalini Sahoo, 2020. "A Methodological Framework for Identification of Baseline Scenario and Assessing the Impact of DEM Scenarios on SWAT Model Outputs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4795-4814, December.
    5. Janjua, Shahmir & An-Vo, Duc-Anh & Reardon-Smith, Kathryn & Mushtaq, Shahbaz, 2024. "Resolving water security conflicts in agriculture by a cooperative Nash bargaining approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    6. Jingyu Li & Yangbo Chen & Yanzheng Zhu & Jun Liu, 2023. "Study of Flood Simulation in Small and Medium-Sized Basins Based on the Liuxihe Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Mou Leong Tan & Hilmi P. Ramli & Tze Huey Tam, 2018. "Effect of DEM Resolution, Source, Resampling Technique and Area Threshold on SWAT Outputs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4591-4606, November.
    8. Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Arianna Oñate-Paladines & Milton Collaguazo, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Soil Impermeability and Its Impact on the Hydrology of An Urban Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Sinan Nacar, 2023. "Trends of High and Low Values of Annual and Seasonal Precipitation in Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Alberto Martínez-Salvador & Carmelo Conesa-García, 2020. "Suitability of the SWAT Model for Simulating Water Discharge and Sediment Load in a Karst Watershed of the Semiarid Mediterranean Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 785-802, January.
    11. Diana Marcela Ruíz Ordoñez & Yineth Viviana Camacho De Angulo & Edgar Leonairo Pencué Fierro & Apolinar Figueroa Casas, 2023. "Mapping Ecosystem Services in an Andean Water Supply Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Hüseyin Akay & Müsteyde Baduna Koçyiğit, 2021. "An Approach for Determination of the Drainage Network Effect on GIUH Using Hesitant Probabilistic Fuzzy Linguistic Sets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3873-3902, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:6:p:1234-:d:1674250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.