Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Services in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration: Implications for Sustainable Land Use Planning

The accelerating process of global urbanization has substantially reshaped land use patterns, exerting profound influences on the dynamics of ecosystem service provision. Effective and adaptive ecosystem management necessitates the quantitative identification and analysis of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their underlying driving mechanisms. Using the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study, this research examines land use dynamics from 2000 to 2020 and projects land use patterns for 2030 under alternative development scenarios. Building upon this foundation, the study quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution of four key ecosystem services—Carbon Storage (CS), Water Yield (WY), Habitat Quality (HQ), and Soil Retention (SDR)—from 2000 to 2030, while elucidating the differential impacts and underlying mechanisms of the driving factors on these services. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, cultivated land remained the dominant land use type (47.71%), followed by forestland (21.44%) and grassland (16.23%), whereas built-up land expanded significantly from 8.12% to 12.74%; (2) the proportion of medium-to-high CS areas reached 47.65%, high-value WY areas increased by 4.9%, low-value HQ areas expanded by 4.28%, and low-value SDR areas accounted for 84.44%; (3) the PLUS model validation yielded a Kappa coefficient of 86.1%, indicating high simulation accuracy. Scenario-based predictions suggest that under an ecological protection scenario, the proportion of medium-to-high CS areas would increase by 0.59%, whereas under an economic development scenario, these areas would decline by 2.57%, with low-value HQ areas expanding by 2.04%; (4) slope (X 2 ) was identified as the dominant factor influencing CS (q = 0.22), HQ (q = 0.36–0.42), and SDR (q = 0.42), while mean annual precipitation (X 4 ) played a crucial role in determining WY. Furthermore, socioeconomic activities, particularly increasing population density, exhibited a growing negative impact on HQ and CS, highlighting the intensifying role of anthropogenic interventions in shaping ecosystem service patterns. This study unveils the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services and their driving mechanisms in the context of urbanization, offering valuable insights to inform regional ecological conservation and sustainable development policies.