Forest Tales? Unravelling Divergent Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) Maps and State Narratives in Vietnam’s Northern Uplands

The Vietnamese state has advocated for the sedentarization and market integration of upland northern farmers over the past thirty years, leading to both agrarian and forest transitions. This article presents a comprehensive land use and land cover change (LULCC) analysis of two adjacent upland borderland districts, Phong Thổ and Bát Xát, in northern Vietnam, spanning two neighboring inland provinces, Lai Châu and Lào Cai. These districts are primarily home to ethnic minority farmers who are encouraged by Vietnamese state officials to not only protect forests but to also transition toward cash crop cultivation from less intensive semi-subsistence agriculture. Our LULCC maps, covering the period from 1990 to 2020, revealed a reduction in the speed by which closed-canopy forests were disappearing. During interviews, state officials were confident that this was due to a range of state policies and state-sponsored initiatives, including the promotion of tree crops and payments for forest environmental services. Our own fieldwork in the region suggests other factors are also supporting this decline in deforestation rates, rooted in ethnic minority farmer livelihood decision making. Some state officials were also able to point to factors hindering a more positive result regarding forest cover, including population pressure and new infrastructure. Interestingly, despite our positive findings on Land use and land cover change (LULCC) related to forest cover, one-third of state officials, upon reviewing our LULCC maps, firmly maintained that errors had occurred. Some even proposed that there was an actual rise in forest cover. Our study shows that these discrepancies raise compelling questions about officials’ political motivations and ongoing pressures to uphold the central state’s reforestation and agrarian transition discourses.