Expert-Perceived Priorities for Future ESG Adoption Among Kazakhstani SMEs: An AHP-Based Assessment

As ESG considerations increasingly influence access to finance, participation in global supply chains, and long-term competitiveness, understanding which factors experts perceive as most likely to influence future ESG adoption among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has become an important issue in sustainable finance and corporate management research. While existing studies largely focus on ESG performance, disclosure, and implementation outcomes, limited attention has been paid to the relative importance of competing ESG-related adoption factors in SMEs in Kazakhstan, an emerging-market context, particularly in contexts where ESG adoption remains in its early stages. This study investigates expert perceptions of the factors most likely to shape ESG implementation decisions among SMEs in Kazakhstan. Drawing on Institutional Theory, the Resource-Based View (RBV), and the concept of double materiality, the study applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate six ESG-related criteria: coercive institutional pressure, normative pressure, organizational capabilities, financial materiality, impact materiality, and internal governance and processes. Expert judgments were collected through pairwise comparisons and aggregated using the geometric mean within a group AHP framework. The aggregated matrix demonstrated acceptable group-level consistency (CR = 0.0193), providing a basis for exploratory interpretation of the aggregated priority structure, while not validating the consistency of all individual judgments. The findings indicate a structured priority pattern among the expert-perceived ESG-related decision factors. The financial dimension received the highest priority weight, followed by coercive and normative pressure. Internal governance occupied an intermediate position, whereas impact materiality and organizational capabilities received nearly identical lower weights. These results suggest that experts expect future ESG adoption among Kazakhstani SMEs to be influenced primarily by financial relevance and regulatory compliance rather than by impact-oriented sustainability objectives or internally developed sustainability capabilities. This study contributes to the literature in three ways. First, it advances understanding of ESG adoption readiness and prioritization mechanisms among SMEs in Kazakhstan, as an emerging-market context, by integrating institutional, resource-based, and materiality-oriented perspectives. Second, it extends the debate on double materiality by suggesting that financially relevant ESG considerations may play a particularly important role in ESG-related decision-making under conditions of resource scarcity and institutional uncertainty. Third, it provides evidence relevant to ESG regulation, sustainable finance, and SME support policies in developing economies. More broadly, the findings suggest that within the Kazakhstani SME context, ESG is expected to become financially relevant before it becomes fully internalized as a strategic sustainability practice.