Assessing the Association Between FinTech-Related Policy Reforms and the Profitability of Banks in Qatar: A Preliminary Two-Decade Panel Analysis (2005–2024)

This paper examines the association between two Financial Technology (FinTech)-related policy windows and the profitability of Qatari commercial banks over a twenty-year horizon (2005–2024). The analysis is anchored by two structural breaks: in 2017, the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) established its FinTech task force and lifted restrictions on the implementation of a regulatory sandbox and centralised electronic know your customer (e-KYC) framework; and during the digital-acceleration period in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the issuance of digital banking licences. FinTech adoption is not measured directly at the bank level; the two policy windows are used as intent-to-treat proxies. Using return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE), bank performance is measured and influenced by bank size (log of total assets), bank age and type (Islamic and conventional). Multiple diagnostics of Hausman and Breusch–Pagan support the use of fixed-effects (FE) panel regressions with cluster-robust standard errors on an unbalanced panel of 125 bank–year observations. The results show a positive coefficient on the post-2017 dummy in the ROE model (β = 0.0306, p = 0.054, cluster-robust) and no detectable change in ROA (β = −0.00058, p = 0.868). For the post-2020 phase, both coefficients are positive but do not reach conventional significance (ROA: β = 0.00218, p = 0.539; ROE: β = 0.0224, p = 0.150). There is no systematic difference between Islamic and conventional banks that is offered by the interaction terms in either phase. Given the small sample (nine banks, eight effective clusters after the FE singleton drop; 125 observations) and the use of policy-window proxies rather than direct bank-level FinTech measures, the design cannot isolate the effect of the FinTech-related reforms from concurrent macroeconomic, sectorial or pandemic-related developments, and the cluster-robust p -values should be read as approximate. The results are therefore presented as preliminary and indicative. Read in light of these design constraints, the results are consistent with incremental rather than transformative change around the FinTech-related policy windows in Qatar, with results influenced more by timing, scale economies, and regulatory saturation than by bank type. The country-specific empirical findings can help restore context to the literature on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) average, and provide measured guidance for bank managers and regulators working toward the Qatar National Vision 2030 digital aspiration.