Evaluating Simple Strategies with Mutual Funds and ETFs to Outperform the China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SCI)

This paper examines several portfolio rules for comparing performance against the Shanghai Composite Index. The investor can use mutual funds or sector-based Exchange-Traded funds (ETFs). Five different approaches are applied for analysis. Two core approaches are discussed in detail and compared to passive investing: The top- N strategy and the sector rotation strategy. The Top- N strategy shifts capital each period into the last period rank- N fund, and the sector rotation strategy ranks funds based on their performance in the preceding investment period, forming three baskets: “Winners”, “Median”, and “Losers”. Extensive statistical tests on more than 300 equity mutual funds are performed for the top- N strategy to evaluate performance persistence using quintile sorts, winner–loser spreads, and transition tests. In contrast, the sector-rotation strategy and a holdings-based replication strategy (constructed from annual reports and sector funds) are implemented as case studies using the ten largest funds. Their performance is evaluated using multiple return and risk metrics.