Optimal and Non-Optimal MACD Parameter Ranges with Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Rules: Evidence from the Gold Market

This study investigates optimal and non-optimal MACD parameter ranges in the gold market using a simulation-based framework and examines their implications for trading strategy design and risk-adjusted performance. By systematically identifying optimal and non-optimal MACD parameter ranges together with appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels, this study addresses an issue that has not been explored in the existing literature on gold markets. The empirical results reveal a clear contrast between the optimal and non-optimal groups. Importantly, the superior performance of the optimal strategies emerges at the group level, rather than being driven by isolated exceptional models. Annual analysis further shows that models in the optimal groups respond effectively to overall market direction, taking long (short) positions under upward- (downward-) biased market conditions. Additional analyses examine fixed-ratio stop-loss and take-profit rules, identifying parameter–strategy combinations that balance risk control and profit realization. A cross-market comparison between the gold and stock markets highlights significant heterogeneity in optimal parameter ranges and investment horizons, underscoring the market-specific nature of MACD-based trading rules and the limits of cross-asset parameter transferability. Overall, these findings provide deeper insights into market-specific trading dynamics, going beyond the provision of an empirical benchmark and a methodological reference for MACD-based trading strategy design in the gold market.